In case you missed the obituary, HD DVD is dead. Toshiba recently announced it would cease production of HD DVD's, making Sony's Blu-Ray the apparent winner of the high def physical format war.

I watched this battle with great interest as a case study in business strategy and brinkmanship. Here was a golden opportunity to observe VHS vs. Beta Part Two. My guess was that, having lived through a format war already, the major players would take a more sophisticated approach and settle on a format before bringing a product to market, thereby avoiding risking potential billions in losses. Boy, was I wrong.

So Blu-Ray won, but why? Many cite the advantage Sony had with it's popular Blu-equipped Playstation game console, others claim that Sony had more to lose and was more aggressive in it's pricing and partnerships, while a few believe the Blu-Ray name itself was a factor.

I'm sure the reasons are many and future MBA students will no doubt analyze the heck out of it. But comparing the two format wars, one simple similarity immediate jumps out like a top-loaded videocassette; size. Like VHS, Blu-Ray discs have a considerably larger capacity than its rival. (In fact the 'adult entertainment' industry is often alleged to have deciding the winning videocassette by picking VHS. In fact, Porn's adoption was more effect than cause- Betamax only held 2 hours of video and much of Porn's catalog wouldn't fit on the tapes. By the time Porn decided on VHS, consumers and Hollywood were already reaching the same conclusion about the Beta capacity problem.) This time around Sony wasn't going to be out-gunned.

It appears Sony did learn a big lesson about consumer preferences from its Betamax loss- size still matters.

If you're looking for something cool to do tonight, you should head over to Wieden + Kennedy for the very first Ignite Portland. Each presenter has 5 minutes- 20 slides auto advancing every 15 seconds- to say something interesting. Check out this lineup of topics!

5:30 Doors Open
6:00 Registration & Networking
6:20 Welcome and Introductions
6:30 Presentations Wave 1
- Renny Gleeson: What is Ignite?
- Steve Morris: How to put together an investor presentation
- Urban Scout: Rewilding. The process of undoing domestication
- Adam Duvander: Simplicity, create killer products and live a saner life
- Audrey Eschright: Why knitting is a good hobby for geeks
- Kevin Tate: Emergence In Business
- Scott Huber: I know more about Russell Davies than I do about my boss sitting across from me.
- Crystal Beasley: How to make a proper southern meal
- Scott Kveton: Free beef and clean bathrooms: the irrelevance of Web 2.0
7:20 Break and Networking
7:35 Door Prize
7:40 Presentations Wave 2
- MJ: Unicycling for a wicked-good time
- Selena Deckelmann: Are surveys useful?
- Bill DeRouchey: The History of the Button.
- Keith Gerr: Identity and brand development strategies for a wired world
- Sarah Gilbert: How keeping chickens will save your life
- MarcoPolo: You Give Good TXT: How to Talk to Someone Romantically Online
- Justin Kistner: Decentralized social network standards
- Hideshi Hamaguchi: How to live like Japanese in Portland
- Douglas Wolk: The Complete and Utter History of the Numa Numa Dance
8:30 Networking

Some things never get old. Like finding a sweet expanding bubble logo. This growing globular graphic comes courtesy of Beaverton, Oregon based YourList.com. From what I can tell YourList is like Craigslist but without the Craig. Contrataulations to YourList on their awesome logo.

The tally so far:

In promotion of the upcoming Simspons movie, Twentieth Century FOX is unleashing an unprecedented, both in scope and creativity, pre-promotion marketing campaign. Here's a visual tour:

The official Simpsons Movie Site has lots of cool stuff ranging from the usual; wallpapers & screen savers to some silly yet surprisingly addictive games (complete with lots of “D'oh” & Aye Carumba! sound effects), a virtual tour of Springfield and a very cool tool that lets you create you own Simpsons avatar.

The Simpsons Movie Poster with every character in the film.



Using the Simpsons avatar generator each character can be customized with Simpson-esque skintone, hairstyles, clothes, eyes, and facial hair. Of course it's most fun to “Simpsonize” yourself.



Burger King has also launched a cross-promotional site at SimpsonizeMe.com which, in theory allows you to upload a photo of yourself for automatic "Simpsonize-ing". Despite several attempts I couldn't get it to work.



The Simpsons USA Today Springfield Challenge was an online contest that landed the town of Springfield, Vermont, population 9,000, the title of the official home of The Simpsons and the location of the premiere of The Simpsons Movie on July 21.



The Official Simpsons Marketing Partner Site, SeeYellow.com, allows visitors to win prizes.



The Xbox contest is giving away trips to the premiere in Vermont and limited edition Simpsons Xbox consoles.




Mr. Burns takes over JetBlue Chairman's blog.

"Hi I'm Montgomery Burns,

Here's my newest attempt at robbing a man of his livelihood. I have temporarily taken over David Neeleman's Log as I believe I have more efficient ways to run this airline. I could crush him like an ant."

Book a flight with JetBlue city destination bubbles.



Simpsons Vans Shoes.




Samsung has launched a couple of yellow Simpsons-branded cell phones.



The Simpsons MySpace "Animate Your world" promotion let's you "Simpsonize" your MySpace page with tons of profile skins, wallpapers, IM icons, cell phone ringtones & backgrounds, animated gifts and chances to win "Awesome Prizes".



The 7-11 "You Can Get Animated" contest might land your animated self an appearance on the show.



And my favorite promotional of the lot: at a cost of $10 million, eleven 7-Eleven stores around America have been transformed into Kwik-E-Marts, the show's convenience store helmed by Apu Nahasapeemapetilon, complete with loads of Simpsons-based products.







I really want a Squishee, but unfortunately the closest one is in Seattle.

Come join me tomorrow at an informal blogger dinner tonight with special guests Jeremiah Owyang and Robert Scoble of Podtech. The dinner will take place at Jive Software, which is co-sponsoring the event along with Intel Software Network.

Don't forget to RSVP if you plan to attend, and be forewarned; the event will be likely be streamed live, as well as videotaped and lots of cameras will be taking photos for blog posts, so wear a clean shirt.

Details:
When: Thursday, July 19, 2007 @ 6:00 pm
Where: Jive Software 317 SW Alder St., Ste 500 , Portland, OR

Congratulations to Realivent on their awesome 'Expanding Bubble Logo'! They've given the EBL concept a very "Web 2.0" spin with their choice of font (Helvetica Rounded Bold?) and color, cliché lime green. For those playing along at home, here is the tally so far:





If you know of any others, please send them along.

OK, make that three things everyone has; a bellybutton, an opinion, and now a blog post about the iPhone.

This last week I've been asked many times for my take on the iPhone. Many of the people I talk to throughout the day are non-techies and most just want to understand what it is and why it's such a big deal. I'll answer with my 4 W's on the iPhone- what, who, when & why.

What is it? Don't think of it as a phone. It's a handheld computer. Sure, a phone is among it's features, as well as an iPod, web browser etc., but in part because of its operating system- an optimized version of the Mac OS X that allows for creation of applications & widgets, and the proliferation of web applications, the possibilities for this device are almost limitless.

Who will use it? Apple typically focuses on the consumer (as apposed to business) side of the market and their marketing reflects this. Consider the Macintosh and iPod ads that imbue these devises with a cooler-than-thou youth culture verisimilitude and mocks anything that smacks of even the slightest tinge of maturity. “Hey, you pre-historic 32 year old geezer with your pants pulled up to your waist, your neatly combed hair and your...ROFLMAO...Windows PC- yeah, we're making fun of you!”

[as a 30-something who wears waist-high trousers and owns a PC, I do resent these ads just a bit, but I also think this tact is brilliant. For most people, computers are a pain to use. And those of us over 30 didn't grow up with computers- at some time in the 1990's we had to learn to use them for work. So for many, these new fangled contraptions equal frustration, the drudgery of work and a reminder that we're getting old. What better counter image than the carefree spirit of youth? We all want to be young- and now thanks to Apple, for only $599, plus a two year service contract starting at $60 per month- we can.]

That said, everyone I know who rushed out to get an iPhone in the first week of its release is a gainfully employed 30-something who uses the device for work. Maybe they're the only ones who can justify buying a $600 phone that they're not sure even works.

When should I buy one? Wait until the next version comes out- probably right after Christmas. All reports say the the introductory model is great, but the next one should be even better. The current unit lacks some key features that will likely be added to the next version; instant messaging, video recording, support for Adobe Flash, access to iTunes, ability to use multiple functions concurrently, such as using the address book while talking on the phone, and (crossing fingers) built-in GPS.

Why is Apple calling it a revolution? You'll hear lots of criticism that all of the features in the iPhone already exist in other devices, thus it's not a 'revolution'. But these critics fail to understand what Apple's means by revolution. Apple doesn't want to revolutionize the technology- they want to revolutionize the market. (Revolutionizing markets pays a lot better; uber-technologist Nicola Tesla died penniless while Thomas Edison's company, General Electric, made $163 Billion last year alone.)

Consider the iPod. Apple didn't invent the mp3 player, or the scroll wheel or the digital media downloader- they merely made it whole lot easier to download music, get it onto your player and wrapped it in a form that works simply and intuitively. That's what Apple is good at- taking clunky, difficult to use technology and improving it in a way that people love.

If the iPhone does prove to be a revolution, it will be a revolution in the way people interact with computers. If handheld computers become as commonplace as the iPod, it would change the way we shop, work and socialize. That would classify as a revolution in my (i)book.

It appears that Last.fm isn't going to participate in the upcoming SaveNetRadio coalition's National Day of Silence on June 26 which is intended "to draw attention to an impending royalty rate increase that, if implemented, would lead to the virtual shutdown of this country's Internet radio industry."

This isn't really all that much of a surprise to me. After a previous post on the sale of Last.FM to CBS I sent an email to the station's headquarters asking for their stance on the issue of the royalty rate hikes for net radio stations and whether they support the Internet Radio Equality Act. I did not get a reply.

In yesterday's post on TechCrunch, Duncan Rileys ponders:

"On the surface it seems strange that CBS/ Last.fm wouldn’t be participating. Last.fm is obliged to pay royalties in the same way that any online music streaming service is obliged to."

Not exactly. The rates set by the United States Copyright Royalty Board are merely a default rate scale. Internet radio stations are still free to negotiate rates with individual rights holders (record labels) rather than pay the rates mandated by the Royalty Board. According to a statement by Last.fm spokesman Christian Ward, that is exactly what Last.fm plans to do.

“The industry trusts us,” Mr.Ward said, “which means that there are always ways around the issues. It will be difficult, but we’ll find our way around the problem.”

In other words, Last.fm plans to go it alone, negotiate their own rates and stay out of the fight. I think this is a flawed strategy. I don't believe the music industry "trusts" anyone but merely seeks to maximize profits. Even if Last.fm were to successfully negotiate the mine field and become the only net radio station standing (perhaps this has been their strategy all along- they did choose to name themselves Last.fm, after all), well, I wouldn't want to be them at the next round of rate negotiations with the music industry. They would be one small mongoose vs. many very large snakes. They might as well borrow Target's logo- a big bull's eye.

I believe Last.fm is better off being one of several net radio stations in an environment friendly to net radio, than the only station in a hostile environment. In the former scenario they would be battling against rival stations, in the latter they would be all alone against the combined resources of the music industry and the government.

On Wednesday June 20, Pandora.com founder Tim Westergren will be in Portland to meet with Pandora listeners and talk about Pandora and the future of online radio. If you'd like attend, please RSVP by emailing tour@pandora.com with "Portland" in the subject line.

Details:
When: Wednesday, June 20, 2007 @ 7:00 pm
Where: Disjecta 5 SE 3rd Avenue, Portland

What do you think is the over/under on how many times Tim will say, “Write your congressman”?

Since landing the first selection in the upcoming NBA draft, the Portland Trailblazers are a revitalized franchise. The Blazers are looking to capitalize on their good fortune and their marketing department is jumping on the interactive marketing bandwagon in a big way.

Today the Portland Trailblazers launched a micro-site that lets fans cast their vote for whether the Blazers should select Ohio State Center Greg Oden or Texas forward Kevin Durant with the first pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. The site serves up tons of content about the two players; GM Kevin Pritchard's audio analysis of each player's game, video clips of the players, podcasts, links to articles, photos, Blazers broadcasters' opinion on who the team should select and content from the teams official fan site. Word has it that the micro-site will soon feature video clips, photos and interviews of the two players' pre-draft workouts with the team as well.

The Blazers also added a Twitter feed earlier in the week, though they don't seem to be updating it.

Earlier in the month the Blazers put up a billboard encouraging drivers to honk once for Oden, twice for Durant.

Greg Oden, the Blazers likely choice, has a blog in which he responds directly to comments and questions from Portland fans.

It's extremely unlikely that any of this fan input will have any bearing on who the Blazers ultimate pick on June 28th, but it's good to see the team taking a more fun and interactive approach with their fans.

The Blazers, owned by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, along with the Dallas Mavericks, owned by tech entrepreneur Mark Cuban, have led the NBA in use of technology for marketing and game night entertainment.

Your high school teacher got it wrong. Mine did too. Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury's cautionary tale which we all learned was about the dangers of government censorship, “isn't about government censorship, it's about the moronic influence of local TV news”. At least, according to Ray Bradbury in a fascinating series of videos on Ray Bradbury's website entitled At Home With Ray.

Farenheit 451, the story of Guy Montag, a California fireman who begins to question why he burns books for a living, was written in 1953, a time when most Americans did not yet have televisions. But Bradbury already envisioned a word full of large full color flat panel TV's, which he called “walls”.

According to Ray, the culprit wasn't government, but television's dulling effect on the intellect that shortened attention spans and caused the people to lose interest in books, “I wasn't worried about freedom, I was worried about people being turned into morons by TV...the proliferation of giant screens” and useless information without context, “the bombardment of factoids”.

Your teacher may have gotten it wrong, but it looks like Ray was dead on.

Among the video interviews on the site Ray also explains his criticisms of the Internet, why he recommends writing short stories instead of novels, and why his favorite day is Halloween.

Warning. Federal law allows citizens to reproduce, distribute or exhibit portions of copyrighted motion pictures, video tapes or video discs under certain circumstances without authorization of the copyright holder.

This infringement of copyright is called “fair use” and is allowed for purposes of criticism, news reporting, teaching and parody.

So says the FBI warning style into of this very clever video created by Eric Faden of Bucknell University which explains the basics of federal copyright law and the fair use doctrine. The video is a mosaic of short one-clip-per-spoken-word style snippets taken from Disney films and brilliantly stitched together.

I particularly enjoy the sarcastic unspoken subtext. In the late 80's Disney was in danger of losing Mickey Mouse to the public domain due to expiring copyright. Disney was able to successfully lobby Congress for a favorable revamping on the Copyright Act and eventually creation and passage of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. The DMCA, a draconian piece of legislation essentially allowing copyright holders to bypass the courts in getting warrants to charge violators, gave copyright holders a mighty hammer to smite those who ignored the new stricter copyright laws.

Quick, take a look at this logo.



Are you suddenly inspired to make a positive change in your life?

This is the new logo for 2012 London Olympics that was unveiled on Monday. The zig zaggy design which is meant to be a graffiti-style play on 2012 was greeted with a cacophony of public criticism.

On the evening of the unveiling, an online petition calling for the logo to be scrapped received over 100,000 signatures. Leading design experts have been equally critical. Stephen Bayley, the founder of the Design Museum commented: "It is a puerile mess, an artistic flop and a commercial scandal. It is feeble." Claire Beale, editor of the advertising trade magazine Campaign noted that agencies working for the Games' commercial partners were worried it would be difficult to incorporate the logo into their own advertising.

By the way, the logo design cost London taxpayers a staggering £400,000 ($797,400). That could buy a lot of bangers and mash.

The response from the government was classic bureaucratic nonsense. Prime Minister Tony Blair insisted that the logo would inspire people "to make a positive change in their life". Um, right. Lord Coe, Member of Parliament & Chairman of London Olympic Committee, argued: "It's not a logo- it's a brand that will take us forward for the next five years... it's a brand that we genuinely believe in."

I have no issue with the logo itself- that's for the Londoners to sort out. As I see it, the lessons here are three-fold:

1. A brand is what the customer says it is. The customer has the final say in the matter. Instead of telling the customer what they think, it's better to listen to what they are saying. If they feel inspired by your brand, you won't have to tell them- they will tell you.

2. A top-down approach in an increasingly bottom-up world. Lord Coe forgot to get buy-in from the most important stakeholder- the customer. If the purpose of their marketing is to rally the support of the citizens of London and attract advertisers and sponsors, it makes sense to bring them into the process. In fact, with the communication tools we now have have available, there is no excuse not to.

3. Avoiding the problem only makes it worse. People aren't fooled by spin. On the London 2012 blog, only eight comments were posted on the entry about the logo. One declared the logo, “brave and exciting”. This type of disconnect from public sentiment only serves to undermine the credibly of the committee.

My suggestions:

Get the customer involved and open up the process. Let the public submit original logo designs and let the public vote online and from cell phones for their favorites. Instead of hoping potential sponsors like the design, bring them into the mix too. Let them help create the design parameters for submissions and bring them in to sponsor the contest.

£400,000 for a logo is ridiculous. A £50,000 ($100k) bounty and free passes to the games for the winner would bring in more submissions than needed. Every design student in the country would be pulling all-nighters for a chance at that kind of prize, not to mention the prestige that would come along with winning.

Be real. Trying to fool your customer isn't going to work. If you're going to allow comments on your blog, let dissenters have a voice. Respect your customer's intelligence. Don't presume to tell the citizens of one of the most sophisticated cities in the world that a logo will change people lives- except for the lucky stiff who ran off with £400,000 of the their money. And don't tell your customers that “we” believe in something if you haven't given them a voice- the customer knows that “we” doesn't include them.

If you're in Portland and looking for something fun to do on the weekend of June 30 2007, check out the Platform International Animation Festival at the Portland Center for the Performing Arts. Apparently, the best animation fests are held in Europe and Asia and this event, sponsored by Cartoon Network, seeks to correct that.

From the Platform press release:

Looking to fill the need for a major animation event in the U.S., the PLATFORM International Animation Festival will be a literal platform for artists, innovation, debate and discussion as well as set the stage to explore new developments in animation. The Festival program will feature premieres and retrospectives, exclusive screenings, guest speakers, exhibitions, workshops with leading artists, parties and networking opportunities with industry insiders. The Festival is being solely sponsored by Cartoon Network.

“We want animators to be able to find new answers and new opportunities with the best in the industry. Whether the animated submissions are created for theaters, cell phones or for the sides of buildings, if it is brilliant and innovative, we want to show it.”, Said Kotlarz, producer of animation projects.

PLATFORM represents a brand new breed of festival. Along with being an international competition with cash prizes, the Festival will break boundaries into other art forms including comics, illustration, character and toy design, motion graphics, gallery art and live action cinema.

“PLATFORM will serve as a special place where emerging artists and talents can learn, grow, be inspired and showcase their work,” said Michael Ouweleen, Cartoon Network’s Senior VP, Programming & Development.

Visit the festival's site for schedule, ticket info and some really cool 2D animation.

This week the London-based Internet music service Last.FM was purchased by CBS Radio for the tidy sum of $280 Million.

The sale seems to have left everyone a bit puzzled. Loyal fans of the service have expressed concern about the future of their much loved music service once it “goes corporate”. Analysts have speculated as to why CBS would want to acquire an Internet station. The answer to the former remains to be seen. The later question is simple- CBS is in the radio business (having inherited what used to be Infinity Broadcasting in its split from Viacom) and it's pretty clear that net radio is the future of the industry.

But the real question that isn't being asked is...can CBS save net radio?

Here's a quick recap for those just tuning in. This year, the United States Copyright Royalty Board passed a substantial rate increase in the royalties payable to performers of recorded works broadcast on the Internet. These rate increases, which apply only to Internet radio, not terrestrial or satellite stations, (and of which musicians will never see a dime) would effectively put every net radio station out of business. Doubtless the RIAA, comprised of member record labels and distributors, are behind the exhortation rate hikes; SoundExchange, the RIAA’s collection body has secured legal authority to administer a compulsory license that covers all recorded music. It's unclear whether the move is merely a horribly misguided attempt (dead companies don't pay royalties) to maximize revenues, or whether the RIAA, having been taken by surprise by the swift success of online music distribution and alarmed by their lack of control of the medium seeks to kill the fledgling industry in a desperate move to regain their death grip on music distribution.

Meanwhile, the terrestrial radio industry is happy to sit by fiddling while the net radio industry burns. Big mistake. The RIAA seems to be embarking on an divide-and-conquer strategy. Today net radio, tomorrow terrestrial radio. It's a lot easier to negotiate with small disparate groups than a powerful unified front. Terrestrial radio would be wise to join the fight to save net radio for their own sake. They should join forces with net radio providers to negotiate lower royalty rates for all stations.

The problem is that terrestrial radio stations are scared. They see net radio as a threat- the destroyer on the horizon that threatens to do to them what the Internet is doing to the traditional newspaper, stock brokerage, music retailer and travel agency industries. Given their level of fear, coming to the aid of the destroyer isn't high on their priority list. (Have you ever noticed that radio station promotional contests will give away cash, vacations, even cars- but never an iPod.)

But now the fight to save net radio has something it has lacked- a deep-pocketed, politically connected ally with skin in the game. I'm hoping CBS/Last.FM does the rational thing and brings their full resources to bear in the fight for reasonable fees for online music stations. I'm hoping more terrestrial radio companies realize their own futures are at stake and support the Internet Radio Equality Act.

I don't know if the help of CBS/Last.FM will be enough to tip the scales in favor of fair and equitable royalty pricing, but I'm hopeful. This acquisition is possibly a sign that the radio industry is starting to 'get it'. That may be be great news for those of use that want to save net radio. Let's hope they come to their senses in time.